Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Dayton Business Journal:

badillodacyroic1505.blogspot.com
Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrighr State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirdx quarter ofthis year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Miami and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,00p jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employment to downfrom 380,400 in the first quarte r of the year, a 2 percent decline. The hardest-hitf area is one the Dayton area has longreliec on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the reporyt show employment in the sector falling from 42,300 in the first quarter of this year to 36,10p0 by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durablr goods manufacturing will be hitin particular, Traynor “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectefto decrease. Retail employment is expectede to dropto 39,10p by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsrt quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Service which includes financial service, business service, utilitiews and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,200 by the thirfd quarter, down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent decline. “Thed next year to year and a half will be an unpleasangt time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructio employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonal employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firstg quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time perioed last year. One area of employment that isn’t expectes to be hit hard is health care.
In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by the third quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firsg quarter. He said the rate of decline in groses domestic productwill slow, but remain negative throug the third quarter and maybe into the fourtg quarter of this year. Even when GDP does become positivew again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becausse it is a lagging indicator ofeconomix recovery.
Traynor said there is a grear deal of uncertainty still on thenational level, as businessesx try to determine the impact of government Traynor said the problem of high unemploymentg is not going away anytime “This is something we’re going to be livinvg with for quite a well into next year,” he said.